Together these two claims imply that whenever there are sufficiently many correlated agents, the appropriate response is to act in accordance with EDT. Second, we show that, given the assumption of altruism, the existence of correlated decision-makers will increase the stakes for EDT but leave the stakes for CDT unaffected. That is, if the stakes are much higher on one theory than another, and the credences you assign to each of these theories aren’t very different, then it’s appropriate to choose the option which performs best on the high-stakes theory. First, we claim that that the appropriate response to normative uncertainty is to hedge one’s bets. We argue that even if she has significantly higher credence in CDT, she should nevertheless act in accordance with EDT. Suppose that an altruistic and morally motivated agent who is uncertain between evidential decision theory (EDT) and causal decision theory (CDT) finds herself in a situation in which the two theories give conflicting verdicts. 1st Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 18-19 March 2019.Atkinson Memorial Lecture – 11 June 2019.Workshop on the Economics of Catastrophe – 12-13 June 2019.The name of the actual betting site is World Wide Wagering and the URL is Wager.dm. 2nd Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 1-2 July 2019 Just because it has a basic name, it does not automatically mean that it is a basic sport betting site.3rd Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 12-13 December 2019 (Wager.dm) We strongly suggest that you make you wagers via a mobile cell phone or computer.5th Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 7-8 December 2020.4th Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 16-17 March 2020.Global Priorities Seminar – Trinity term 2020.6th Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 17-19 March 2021.Atkinson Memorial Lecture – 17 June 2021.7th Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 23-25 June 2021.8th Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 6-8 December 2021.11th Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 5-6 December 2022.Workshop on Longtermism and Non-Consequentialist Moral Philosophy – 4-5 August 2022.10th workshop page – Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research – 27-28 June 2022.Open Student Workshop on Global Priorities Research (OSW-GPR) – 26 – 29 June 2022.Atkinson Memorial Lecture – 13 June 2022.
Foundational Issues in Effective Altruism (October 2017 Version).Topics in Global Priorities Research (April 2019 Version).Foundational Issues in Effective Altruism (October 2022 Version).Global Priorities Research: Ethics and the (Very Far) Future (October 2022 Version).
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